Late last year, my friend Chris called me to ask whether he should withdraw all of his deposits from his local bank. Chris was afraid that his bank might fail and he'd lose his savings. "This isn't 1929," I said. "Your deposits are insured and the government's taking action to shore up our lending institutions to protect your deposits and to keep our banks solvent."
When the market changes, not everyone agrees with what's happening. If change is inevitable and everybody resists it, how do we know when the market will bottom? In the last post, you read about what 1,157 New England based commercial real estate owners and investors thought of the market. Today, you'll read about where they think it's going.
Change is inevitable and everybody resists it. But what happens when the market changes and not everyone agrees with what's happening? We wanted to find out. So we ran a survey of over 1,157 New England based commercial real estate owners and investors to collect their thoughts on the commercial real estate market.
Vacancy rates for office space in 128 north are increasing. According to CoStar research, vacancy rates dipped in 2006-2007 into the 13% range. They're now forecasting vacancy rates up to 16% as more space comes on the market with pending job layoffs. The vacancy rate has not increased more drastically because tenants have not started giving up space to their landlords as they hold out to see when the recession will end and to see whether they'll need space to rehire staff.
The battlefield is quiet. Buyers have retreated and sellers have dug in. There's chatter in the trenches. "They'll come to us when they're ready," the sellers banter. "They can't hold out forever. Eventually they'll need a property and will come knocking on our doors for what we've got." They feel proud of what they own, but inside they're nervous because they know they can't hold on forever. The supplies are bound to run out.
It seems there’s been a rash of suicides and other violent acts in the news lately and a number of them have been connected to real estate. David Kellerman was found dead, from hanging, this morning in his basement. A couple of months ago Steve Good of Sheldon Good & Company was found dead (by [...]
The stalemate is ending. We have just summitted a mountain of transactions and have been sliding down the other side, as represented in CoStar's chart showing national sales volumes for office properties.
Play not to lose? Who would do that? More people than you may realize. How many times have you heard the excuse, "Our marriage is terrible. I'm not happy. But we've been married for 25 years, so why get a divorce? Only if it could be like it was when we first met." Or, "Sure, when I bought this building it was going to be worth 50% more than what I paid, but since I lost those tenants and I'm losing a lot of money every month. Not a big deal, the market will turn around and I'll get back to where I was, eventually."
The final quarter of 2008 saw a 27 % increase in troubled real estate assets for lenders headquartered in Massachusetts according to data compiled from the FDIC. Only lenders headquartered in Massachusetts with balances of REO or Non-accrual totaling $1Million or more were included in the survey.
REO (also OREO or Other Real Estate Owned) balances [...]
Have you ever seen an episode of The Bachelor? In this reality TV show a wealthy attractive bachelor is offered two-dozen attractive, albeit somewhat pathetic, women from which to choose a spouse. They’re all made up their best, dressed in high-fashion, and they’re hungry…for love…they want this dude. He starts with the whole lot to [...]
Monday, June 22, 2009
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